Thursday, September 25, 2008

Bilirakis in Trouble

A recent poll by Momentum Analysis has Gus Bilirakis in trouble in his re-election bid in FL-9. Gus only hits 45% in the poll. Newcomer Democratic challenger Bill Mitchell currently sits at 22%, but as the campaign moves forward and his name recognition increases, he's likely to take a large chunk of the 34% undecided vote. Undecided voters tend to break for the challenger, particularly in a Democratic year such as 2008. Additionally, the undecided voters lean Democratic, 46%-37%.

Polling in the District on generic terms gives a 47%-38% Republican advantage with 15% undecided at this point, meaning Mitchell has a legitimate shot at making a move here if he has a strong campaign. Bilirakis is unpopular and polls lower than a generic Republican, meaning once people learn his name, they are less likely to vote for him. On top of that, he has little record to run on and is an inept campaigner. This race could well be in play.

(400 likely voters were surveyed September 20-22, 2008 and there is a margin of error of +/-4.9%.)

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